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Data & Analytics

Actual vs budget · Jan–Jun 2026

Business Performance Analysis & Forecasting

Key result · Revenue +45.8%, yet operating profit £7k below budget

Case study by Blessing Osamudiamen, ACA · Chartered Accountant & Financial Analyst

Revenue growth, Jan–Jun
+45.8%
Operating profit vs budget
−£7.0k
Marketing spend (£8k → £16k)
2×
Q3 revenue forecast
£306k

1 · Problem statement

Monthly revenue grew from £60k to £87.5k — but was that growth delivering the profit management had budgeted?

2 · Methodology

Margin, budget-variance and cost-ratio analysis on six months of actuals, a management dashboard with written findings, and a driver-based July–September forecast.

  1. Analysed margins, budget variances and cost ratios from six months of actuals.
  2. Reported through a management dashboard with written findings and recommendations.
  3. Forecast July–September with a driver-based projection built on revenue growth and cost ratios.
  • Excel
  • Variance Analysis
  • Dashboards
  • Driver-Based Forecast

3 · Key findings

  • Revenue finished £8k below budget (£440k vs £448k); operating profit £29.0k vs £36.0k.
  • Operating profit beat budget in February and March, then fell short every month from April.
  • Gross margin held at 44–45%, while operating margin slipped from 6.7% to 5.0%.
  • Q3 forecast: £20.5k operating profit (6.7% margin) — dependent on marketing falling from 18.3% to 15.3% of revenue.

4 · Strategic recommendations

  1. Test marketing returns — check whether the doubled spend is converting into revenue.
  2. Control operating costs — align payroll and other cost growth with revenue growth.
  3. Tighten budget monitoring — review variances monthly, starting with April to June.

The “so what?”

Revenue growth alone did not deliver the planned profit. Rising marketing cost, not gross margin, drove the gap.

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